Is this the beginning of the seventh wave of the Corona virus? Alert some indications. “There is a resumption of the epidemic and it is completely unexpected compared to the season” Confirmed last weekend an infectious disease doctor Benjamin Davido, a Covid-19 consultant at the Garches Hospital in Hauts-de-Seine, in an interview with Franceinfo. Since the beginning of June, the number of positive cases has increased as well as the number of hospitalizations. that is the last one
100,000 cases in July?
On June 1, more than 25,000 new infections were recorded. After 15 days, it became double. The average over the past week has returned to more than 50,000 cases per day, for the first time since May 2. And in the past 24 hours, 95,217 cases were identified, an increase of 46% from last Tuesday.
If the curve continues to progress, the threshold of 100,000 daily cases can be crossed at the start of the school vacation, at the beginning of July. By comparison, compared to last year at the same time, there were fewer than 5,000 daily cases and the peak of the delta wave was due to be reached during July.
The number of tests performed increases
Within two weeks, the number of tests increased by 26%. Between June 6 and 12, nearly 1.3 million PCR and antigen tests have been validated, the Department of Statistics (Drees) outlines in a press release. This is three times lower compared to the end of March. Over the Christmas holidays, nearly ten million tests were taken.
As we can see, thanks to the curve below, all age groups are affected by this growth of the epidemic, both younger and older. At first, those under the age of fifty were infected, then the percentage of positivity increased among those over the age of sixty.
Increase in hospital admissions
According to data from Public Health France, the consequences of this increase in cases are still limited for hospitals. However, hospitalizations are increasing: +14% over the past two weeks. Three weeks ago, there were less than 400 admissions per day on average, today there are nearly 600. The most recent peak dates back to April, with more than 25,000 hospitalizations, including just under 850 in critical care.
Two explanations: first, there is a delay between contamination and the development of a severe form of the disease, and then the effectiveness of the vaccine against severe forms of Covid-19. The number of critical care admissions also remains stable.
And the number of deaths is not increasing. Last weekend, between 40 and 50 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded each day. At the end of April and beginning of May, there were more than a hundred deaths per day.
How do we explain this increase?
If the virus spreads again at a high speed, it is because of several types of Omicron: BA.4, BA.5 and BA2.12.1. “The epidemic curve is exponential in France” Notes on franceinfo by Antoine Flaholtan epidemiologist and director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Geneva Medical School. “With the new current variants, the most polluting, from 10 to 15%, the epidemic finds new blood even though we are past the period of the cold season” Analysis for his part, contagion scientist Benjamin Davido.
According to Guillaume Rozier, pFounder of Covid TrackerAnd the on Twitter : “We are seeing a similar epidemic increase in our neighbors (Italy, Germany, etc.). Some countries have already passed this wave (Portugal and South Africa) which, at its peak, reached half the number of cases as low as the Omicron wave, but close to the number of hospitalizations “.
For its part, the governmentDon’t talk about the waves At this point, butbe very vigilant” His spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire said Tuesday, announcing Letter to the Council of Ministers on June 22. Regarding the procedures that the Executive Authority intends to maintain after the end of the exit system from the state of health emergency, scheduled for July 31.
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