Une sombre prédiction faite il ya une demi-décennie par des épidémiologists et des modélisateurs de l’école de santé publique de l’Université de Pittsburgh s’est réalisée : plus de 100 000 personnes meurent chaque anné aux United. International Journal of Drug Policy He publishes a special section of his June issue that reflects the exponential growth in drug-related deaths that Pete’s team revealed in 2017.
Special Section – Based on the Pete Language Team’s historical research article Science which analyzed nearly four decades of data on drug overdoses in the United States—contains comments from four teams of epidemiologists, addiction specialists, designers, and drug policy experts, plus an update to the original authors and an editorial by one of the journal’s editors.
“Since 1979, drug overdose deaths in the United States have risen relentlessly along a near-perfect exponential curve, despite changes in the popularity of different drugs, new anti-drug policies, demographic changes, economic ups and downs, wars—and now a global pandemic. said Donald S. Burke, MD, a distinguished university professor of health sciences and policy in the Department of Epidemiology at the House of Public Health and lead author of the study. Science publishing. “The fact that we’re still seeing this explosive growth in another five years of data – 413,000 young Americans have died – shows that we really don’t understand the deep drivers of the epidemic.”
distance Science Burke and colleagues have published several other papers that include data on drug overdose deaths in the United States. It is worth noting that the team mentioned in natural medicine That the generation a person is born into—the silent generation, baby boomers, generation X or millennials—strongly predicts their likelihood of dying from a drug overdose and at what age.
The team showed in the paper that when drug overdose deaths differed from their expectations, leading to a famous downturn in 2018. addicted That it was the result of a dwindling supply of carfentanil, a powerful synthetic opioid, and not a sign of a waning drug overdose epidemic. In fact, overdose deaths reverted to an exponential curve the following year.
said Hori Jalal, MD, who leads the author of Science Paper at Pitt and is now at the University of Ottawa. Five years ago, leaders in drug abuse and policy areas described our findings as serendipitous. We need to stop denying that this exponential growth will continue unless we address and fix the root causes. »
In her opening statement, International Journal of Drug Policy Special Edition, Peter Reuter, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, noted that while Science A manuscript has been cited by scientists hundreds of times since its original publication to say drug overdose rates are on the rise, and no one has investigated the underlying cause of the continuing rise.
“It is hard to imagine that this rate of growth could continue for much longer,” Reuters wrote. “The idea that we could see 200,000 fatal overdose per year in 2030 is pretty frightening, even if we’d say the same thing in 2010 when the figure was only 38,000.”
Burke and Galal in their paper for the Special Section suggest that analysis of “systems” including, but not limited to, EHR monitoring data, urine screening, water testing used, drug seizures by law enforcement, and community well gauge surveys— Existentialism, despair, and the economics of the drug trade will be essential to understanding exponential growth. They said computer models and simulations will then need to be designed to guide and test the interventions.
They concluded that “a better understanding of the deep drivers of the epidemic may be needed in order to bend the curve”. “Unless something different is done, the death toll will likely continue to rise exponentially.”
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